[sumo] Fwd: 2026 Aki basho predictions!
Jeff A
jpaitv at gmail.com
Sat Sep 12 20:35:32 EDT 2026
Let’s see how good these predictions are in 15 days.
Gaijingai
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Sumo Stomp! <sumostomp at substack.com>
Date: Sat, Sep 12, 2026 at 5:16 PM
Subject: 2026 Aki basho predictions!
To: <jpaitv at gmail.com>
Here's my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler
competing in the top division at the September tournament.
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for more
2026 Aki basho predictions!
<https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=1519656&post_id=208711446&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=34rkaf&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxODk0MDI5OTksInBvc3RfaWQiOjIwODcxMTQ0NiwiaWF0IjoxNzg5MjQ3Nzg4LCJleHAiOjE3OTE4Mzk3ODgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xNTE5NjU2Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.y_kmjb4y_rMvSeUM_YK-Bey-1eB0VE1MPfqVAzpbX8g>Here's
my projected win totals for every top division sumo wrestler competing in
the top division at the September tournament.
Tim Edwards <https://substack.com/@sumostomp>
Sep 12
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Hi all,
The 2026 *aki basho* starts this Sunday! I can’t wait. For some reason it
feels like it’s been especially long since the Nagoya tournament. So I’m
very eager for this one to get underway and to start covering it here on *Sumo
Stomp!*
Before the action begins on the *dohyō*, though, I have just enough time to
submit my predictions for this forthcoming *basho*. Read on below to see my
projected win-loss records for everyone in *makuuchi* and *jūryō*.
------------------------------
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The bonus gif today is the always lovable, and gif-able, Ura.
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“Up
we go.”
12 wins
-
*O2e Aonishiki*
Not exactly going out on a limb here, I know. However, *Aonishiki* is my
pick to get the most wins this month and is thus my pick to take home this
*yushō*. That would be his fourth *yushō* and it should come with a
promotion to *yokozuna*.
Aonishiki was back to his best in July, despite hobbling on a weakened
ankle. That was the best of his three prior *yushō*. He has benefited from
surprising the field up until very recently. Initially, they really didn’t
see him coming and had no idea how to deal with his unique brand of *sumō*.
In July, though, his opposition had a thorough scouting report on him and
he was operating at far less than one-hundred percent. Yet, he was still
able to best the entire division and lift the cup. He’s a phenom and he’s
an obvious favourite to take home this title (especially with question
marks remaining around Ōnosato).
11 wins
-
*Y1e Ōnosato*
-
*M8e Takerufuji*
I’m choosing to be optimistic with *Ōnosato*. There were moments in July
where he looked back to his awesome self. I’m really hoping that the past
couple of months have seen more improvement to that damaged shoulder and
that we are closer than ever to seeing the big man perform like we know he
can.
I doubt he’s completely recovered, though. That’s why I have him coming up
short here. A second place finish, after how this year has gone for him,
would be a very positive sign, though.
*Takerufuji* is my other pick for the *jun-yushō* spot. He’s looked very
good since the second half of the May tournament. And he had an outside
shot of working himself into the title chase at the tail end of the July
tournament. He seems to have shaken off the injuries that sent him down to,
and got him stuck in, *jūryō*. Despite how long ago it was now, I’m not
ready to call that debut *yushō* a fluke. He’s a little one note, as a
*rikishi*, but that one note he plays is pretty darn good. He’s still
young, and around his athletic prime, so I think he’s still capable of
going on a deep run for a *yushō*. We might see that here (especially with
teammates like Atamifuji, Yoshinofuji and Hakunofuji possibly knocking off
other contenders for the cup).
10 wins
-
*O1e Kirishima*
-
*S1e Atamifuji*
-
*M2e Yoshinofuji*
-
*M15e Asasuiryū*
-
*M16w Toshinofuji*
I think we’re in for a closely fought tournament this time around. Even
though I think Aonishiki is the best of the bunch right now, I don’t see
him running away with it. I think, like in a few tournaments this year, we
might get towards the wire with still half a dozen or so *rikishi* in
contention.
This is a group I think will be there up until the last few days of the
tournament.
*Kirishima* and *Atamifuji* are my least daring picks. They have been
excellent this year. Kirishima has a possible *yokozuna* promotion waiting
for him if he wins this one. With Aonishiki possibly back to full health,
though (as full as health ever gets in sumo, that is), I think that
presents too big an obstacle for that goal to be achieved.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Atamifuji is thinking more about an *ōzeki* run
than a *yushō*. He needs ten wins to keep that alive and I think he’s good
enough to get that. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to show
positive steps in his career by coming close to another title. Like with
Kirishima, though, I think Aonishiki is going to slam the door shut on that
possibility (as he did in July).
I think *Yoshinofuji* is going to bounce back from his poor showing as
a *komusubi.
*The schedule will be a little easier for him here and he’s still
improving. He also benefits from being able to avoid all these tough
Isegahama wrestlers at this end of the *banzuke*.
I’m sticking my neck out on two newcomers reaching double digit wins. Those
two also happen to be the shortest and the tallest men in the division
right now.
I am very high on the giant Toshinofuji (also of Isegahama). His
*yotsu-zumō* (belt grappling) is very easy on the eye. He has a great feel
for those positions and a lot of size to throw behind his offense.
*Asasuiryū* is the opposite. He has no size. What he does have is
tremendous speed. I think he and Toshinofuji will be good enough to put
together a strong opening week against the *makuuchi* cellar dwellers and
then pick up enough wins down the stretch to get to ten and earn some
special prizes.
------------------------------
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------------------------------
9 wins
-
*M2e Takayasu*
-
*M6e Asanoyama*
-
*M10e Ōhō*
-
*M11w Shōdai*
-
*M12w Asahakūryū*
*Takayasu* looked excellent in July and I think he will continue his march
back to the *san’yaku* here. He’s got a lot of youngsters grouped around
him and that will suit him fine. He does great against the up-and-comers
(just ask Yoshinofuji).
I have two more veterans in this cohort. *Asanoyama* has been underranked
for years now, due to injury problems. I think we’re close to reaching his
current ceiling (given his age and injury history), but I also think he’s
good enough to get a winning record here — just below the *jōi*.
I have a hunch that *Shōdai* will have a good tournament. Admittedly, those
good tournaments are becoming few and far between. There’s a few guys
ranked around him who I am projecting to do poorly, so I think there’s a
decent number of wins he can pick up.
*Ōhō* has to respond here, doesn’t he? He was terrible in July and he
received a big demotion for that. We didn’t see any leniency from the JSA
for him being in the *san’yaku* last time out. If he can’t put up a big
number at M10, then I think it’s time we forget about him having any real
potential in the sport.
I still want to believe in *Asahakūryū*. He’s looked so-so lately, but I
saw lots of potential in his first two *makuuchi* tournaments. I’m
predicting he shows more of that promise here.
8 wins
-
*O1w Kotozakura*
-
*K1e Hakunofuji*
-
*K1w Daieisho*
-
*M1e Kotoshōhō*
-
*M1w Kotoeihō*
-
*M4w Fujiryoga*
-
*M7e Fujiseun*
-
*M10w Kinbōzan*
-
*M11e Wakamotoharu*
-
*M13e Asakōryū*
-
*M15w Tokihayate*
I think *Kotozakura* will continue to tread water as an *ōzeki*. It seems
pretty clear that he’s peaked and the best he can do at this rank, with
those creaky knees, is hover around the eight win mark. He’s able to hover
because he still posses a fantastic sumo brain and is able to out-fox a lot
of the other grapplers he meets (most of whom he has a big size advantage
over).
My expectation for a close and competitive *basho* has me thinking that
there’s going to be a lot of parity among a large group of wrestlers
towards the top of the division, with guys essentially trading wins and
losses. I see this leading to *Hakunofuji* and *Daieishō* doing good, not
great, in the *komusubi* slots. And I see the same happening for the Koto
brothers. I think both are great and I’m very excited by *Kotoeihō*’s
potential. But I think this is a tough tournament with a lot of really
strong guys in the *jōi* and *san’yaku* and I think it will be hard for
them (and most others) to get a good lopsided record.
I’ve also got *Wakamotoharu* getting an 8-7. He simply has to stop the
bleeding here, hasn’t he?
I’m also picking *Tokihayate* to survive after coming up from *jūryō*. I
think the older veterans at this end of the division are going to cough up
a lot of wins to the newly promoted guys.
7 wins
-
*M4e Takanoshō*
-
*M5w Ōshōma*
-
*M5e Rōga*
-
*M7w Nishikifuji*
-
*M6w Ichiyamamoto*
-
*M14e Tobizaru*
-
*M9e Ura*
-
*M13w Abi*
-
*M17e Shōnannoumi*
*Takanoshō* has done better than I expected in his last few *jōi* postings.
However, given who else is around him right now (and how good the *ōzeki*
and most the *san’yaku* are) I think it’s going to be very hard for him to
get eight wins.
I think *Ōshōma* and *Rōga* have climbed a little too high to be
comfortable. And I think *Shōnannoumi*, while he showed a ton of heart in
*jūryō*, might still not be cut out for *makuuchi*.
The rest of the 7-8 wrestlers I have here are all veterans who are starting
to show their age. Their declines are extra noticeable thanks to how many
solid young wrestlers there are in the division right now.
6 wins
-
*M9w Shishi*
-
*M14w Chiyoshōma*
Sorry folks, but I don’t think *Shishi* is going to follow up on his
amazing Nagoya *basho*. I think his breakout tournament will end up looking
like Kinbōzan’s 2025 January tournament, where he lost a play-off to
Hōshōryū. I’ve gained a lot of respect for Shishi with his exploits in July
and I think he’s better than I had given him credit for. Still, I just
think there’s a lot of guys ranked around him who are faster, stronger
and/or more technically sound.
5 wins
-
*S1w Fujinokawa*
-
*M3e Gōnoyama*
This pick might not be very popular, either. I think *Fujinokawa* has
caught a lot of opponents off guard during his march up the rankings.
Sometimes that happened quite literally, thanks to his tendency to false
start. I think he might struggle at this *sekiwake* rank because his
grappling technique is a little sloppy. He tries to make up for that with
his ferocity and pace. But I think a lot of the high ranked wrestlers he’ll
meet this month will be familiar enough with him by now that they won’t be
so easily overwhelmed by that pressure.
I’m picking *Gōnoyama* to be one of the whipping boys of the *jōi* this
time around. I’ve picked most guys ranked here (and almost all the upper
rankers) to do well, so someone has to suffer. Gōnoyama is my pick for that
since he’s a very one dimensional pusher/thruster. It’s mostly grapplers
around these rankings, so I think he’ll get exposed often. And I think the
other pusher/thrusters up this high (Daieishō, Kotoshōhō, Takanoshō), whom
he’s likely to meet, are better than him.
4 wins
-
*M3w Churanoumi*
*Churanoumi* is my other whipping boy. He’s a far better grappler than
Gōnoyama, but he’s never performed well when ranked this high. He’s gone
4-11 at M2 and M4 in the last twelve months.
0 wins
-
*Y1w Hōshōryū*
-
*M12e Wakatakakage*
-
*M16e Wakanoshō*
All three of these wrestlers are listed absent for day one. And, due to the
seriousness of their injuries, I doubt any of them feature later on in the
tournament. *Hōshōryū* is recovering from knee surgery. That’s obviously
for the best. I hope he comes back ready to live up to his rank.
*Wakatakakage* will likely miss his second entire tournament as he recovers
from compartment syndrome surgery. He’s lucky to be walking, let alone
competing.
I don’t have the specifics on *Wakanoshō*’s injury, but it looked like he
possibly blew out a knee ligament during a bout in July’s tournament. That
would likely require surgery and a lengthy rehab process. That’s a shame,
since I was really enjoying his *sumō*.
Jūryō
-
J3e *Tamawashi*: 11-4
-
J5w *Arashifuji*, J7e *Midorifuji*, J10e *Nabatame*: 10-5
-
J2w *Kazuma*, J4e *Kazekeno*, J6e *Kitanowaka*, J6w *Shirokuma*, J11e
*Kagayaki*, J12w *Kayo*, J13e *Meisei*: 9-6
-
J3w *Ōnokatsu*, J4w *Mitakeumi*, J7w *Tomokaze*, J8w *Hatsuyama*: 8-7
-
J1e *Dewanoryū*, J1w *Kyokukaiyū*, J2e *Daiseizen*, J9e *Enhō*, J9w
*Tōhakuryū*, J11w *Hitoshi*, , J12e *Tamashoho*, J14e *Tochitaikai*: 7-8
-
J5e *Sadanoumi*, J8e *Ryūden*, J10w *Tanji*, J14w *Nishikigi*: 6-9
-
J13w *Tokifudō*: 5-10
I may have gone against some fan favourites in my *makuuchi* predictions,
but I’m going with the Iron Man to win *jūryō* this month. After recovering
from the leg injury that got him demoted in May, *Tamawashi* looked too
good for *jūryō* in July. The 41 year-old still has plenty left in the tank
and I think he’ll be able to push around the second division this month.
I think his biggest challengers will be *Arashifuji*, *Midorifuji* and
*Nabatame*. Arashifuji looked very good in July and he seems good enough to
be in *makuuchi*. Midorifuji has found his feet since landing here a few
tournaments ago. And Nabatame is a very exciting addition to the second
division this month. I think his fast-paced and aggressive game will
overwhelm a lot of the older, slower guys who are lurking in *jūryō* (that
doesn’t include Tamawashi, though!).
I’ve got *Kazuma*, *Ōnokatsu *and *Mitakeumi* bouncing back from their
demotions. I think *Daiseizan* will struggle, though. Of that group,
Daiseizan seemed to fight with the most anxiety in *makuuchi* (as well as
in *jūryō* when he lost while on the cusp of promotion a few times).
I’m picking *Meisei* to save his *sekitori* (salaried wrestler) status this
month. Like with Wakamotoharu, I feel like he simply has to stop the
bleeding here and show he still has a future in this sport.
I think *Enhō *will get his first *make-koshi* (losing record) since
becoming a *sekitori* again. He’s scraped by in the last two tournaments. I
think he’ll just come up short here.
I’m picking *Dewanoryū *and *Kyokukaiyū *to blow their chances at promotion
this month. That’s mostly because I think there are more skilled wrestlers
ranked just below them who are going to take wins off them and end up
leapfrogging into *makuuchi*.
I’ve got *Tokifudō *as my worst performer. He’s chugged along through
*makushita* to get here, but he hasn’t been especially notable. Both
Nabatame and Tanji appear to have more upside.
------------------------------
Well, there are my picks. What do you think?
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Next up from me… daily tournament updates!
Tim
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