[sumo] Passing the torch - guessing game

[Joshua Maciel]

Just for clarity:

Joe didn't determine that Asashoryuu would have it anyway, I did. Joe
said that since Asashoryuu won the last tournament of 2006, he should
start with it in 2007. I went through the painstaking efforts involved
in actually determining who had it longest, and a slew of other
(irrelevant) data.

Awesome game though. If I win, I'd like to donate the videos to
someone who needs 'em more, me living in Japan and all. And I'm
totally going to win (maybe).

- Josh

On 1/6/07, Barbara <barbara at technogirls.org> wrote:
> Between bashos in the sumo list here we were discussing an amusement
> called "Sumo Champ" based on Joe Petrow's idea.  The general idea is
> that whatever rikishi is the current nominal "champ" loses the title to
> the rikishi who next beats him in a match.  The interesting thing is
> that the "champ" title can zoom up or down the banzuke in a very
> unpredictable manner.  It is a real-life version of a phenomenon called
> "random walk".  See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk
> However, in the case of sumo, it is not perfectly random. That is where
> the fun comes in.
>
> Joe found that eventually the Torch ends up in the hands of Asashoryuu,
> when followed over the past few years. But it isn't much fun to have the
> title in the hands of Asashoryuu and watch him go 15-0 with it because
> that way it moves very little.
>
> It's more fun to give it to whatever poor soul is sitting right at the
> bottom of the makuuchi banzuke and see what happens to it.  It isn't so
> much a title then so let's just call it Passing the Torch.  If we start
> this way, this basho it is lowly Ohtsukasa who starts out carrying the
> Torch, because he is at M15 West.  Some interesting questions are, will
> the Torch make it to Asashoryuu by the end of the basho?  Will it even
> stay in Makuuchi?  It could plummet right down into Juuryo, especially
> early on.  A lot depends on the very first match Ohtsukasa has. That
> match is with Tosanoumi at M15E.
>
> To take a stand on this issue, formulate your opinion to the following
> questions.
>
> (1) The obvious question is of course, who will hold the Torch at the
> end of the basho.  But the rest of the questions are more fun to answer.
> Let's rephrase question 1 as "Will the highest ranked rikishi
> (Asashoryuu) hold the torch on the final day?"
> (2) Will the holder of the Torch at the end of the basho be in Makuuchi,
> or in some lower division?
> (3) Starting at rank 15, the Torch might rise or fall. How many ranks
> difference will there be between the lowest ranked torch bearer and the
> highest, during this basho? Will it be less than 8? (East-West counts as
> half a rank)
> (4) Which group will hold the torch more this basho, the Japanese-born
> rikishi or the foreign-born rikishi? Answer "yes" if Japanese.
> (5) Will any torchbearer win back the Torch a second time after losing
> it?  Think about this - it is more likely than it sounds.
> (6) Will the torchbearer most days be a lucky chikara-mizu presenter?
> (That is, will their water recipient (on the average) be a winner?)
> Maybe the Torch will be lucky. Or terribly unlucky.  Who knows. Answer
> yes if it seems to confer luck. (an even win-loss record will be
> considered lucky.)
> (7) Possessing the Torch might be lucky or unlucky to the rikishi
> himself. On the average, will a rikishi who was torchbearer during the
> basho have a better record before or after getting the Torch? (not
> counting the Torch match itself, which he obviously had to have won.)
> Absences don't count.
> (8) Will we see a torchbearer try to hold onto his Torch with a henka?
> Answer yes if you suspect such deprecable pseudosumo will taint a
> rikishi while holding the Torch.  My judgment is final on whether the
> win was a henka or not.
>
> There are 8 questions above, all of which can be answered yes or no. To
> play, Choose an answer y=yes and n=no for each of the 8 questions and
> write your answer out like this:
> Y,N,Y,Y,N,N,N,Y
> corresponding to the answers to questions 1-8 in order. Be sure to use
> commas between the letters.  Then send your answer to me by private
> email, not to this mailing list.  You can send your answer anytime
> before the final day.  However, if your answer is identical to someone
> else's, only the first right answer wins the prize. I will mention you
> as having also got it right, though.
>
> If no one has the right answer I will use a method to select a winner in
> which I look at those who had only one wrong question, and pick the one
> who answered the hardest questions best.  I'll give details on that
> process if it happens.  With 8 yes-no questions, there are 256 possible
> answers, and that should be enough of a challenge.  This challenge
> should not be as intimidating as some others, since you don't need to
> pick any winners, just answer some yes-no questions.
>
> What is the prize?  The 4-dvdr set of the avi video files of the
> upcoming basho which I am making.  Whoever first sends me the answer
> which turns out to be right before the end of the basho will be the
> winner. I'll send you the disks by mail.  Free.  One entry per person
> please.
>
> In case of fusen or kyujo or absence, Joe's "what if" rules apply.
>
> So, Day 1 is about to begin, and the Torchbearer is Ohtsukasa, and he
> will meet Tosanoumi.  Let's see what happens.
>
> By the way, I didn't originally mean for this to be a Game.  It just
> ended up that way by the time I finished composing this message.  If
> someone else wants to do fancy programming and create an automated
> version of this "Passing the Torch" game, by all means go ahead and do
> so.  It looks like it might be fun. I don't promise to supply the prize
> next time, though.
>
> In fun,
> Barbara Murasakihana
>
>
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