[sumo] Passing the torch - guessing game

[Barbara]

Between bashos in the sumo list here we were discussing an amusement 
called "Sumo Champ" based on Joe Petrow's idea.  The general idea is 
that whatever rikishi is the current nominal "champ" loses the title to 
the rikishi who next beats him in a match.  The interesting thing is 
that the "champ" title can zoom up or down the banzuke in a very 
unpredictable manner.  It is a real-life version of a phenomenon called 
"random walk".  See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk
However, in the case of sumo, it is not perfectly random. That is where 
the fun comes in.

Joe found that eventually the Torch ends up in the hands of Asashoryuu, 
when followed over the past few years. But it isn't much fun to have the 
title in the hands of Asashoryuu and watch him go 15-0 with it because 
that way it moves very little.

It's more fun to give it to whatever poor soul is sitting right at the 
bottom of the makuuchi banzuke and see what happens to it.  It isn't so 
much a title then so let's just call it Passing the Torch.  If we start 
this way, this basho it is lowly Ohtsukasa who starts out carrying the 
Torch, because he is at M15 West.  Some interesting questions are, will 
the Torch make it to Asashoryuu by the end of the basho?  Will it even 
stay in Makuuchi?  It could plummet right down into Juuryo, especially 
early on.  A lot depends on the very first match Ohtsukasa has. That 
match is with Tosanoumi at M15E.

To take a stand on this issue, formulate your opinion to the following 
questions.

(1) The obvious question is of course, who will hold the Torch at the 
end of the basho.  But the rest of the questions are more fun to answer. 
Let's rephrase question 1 as "Will the highest ranked rikishi 
(Asashoryuu) hold the torch on the final day?"
(2) Will the holder of the Torch at the end of the basho be in Makuuchi, 
or in some lower division?
(3) Starting at rank 15, the Torch might rise or fall. How many ranks 
difference will there be between the lowest ranked torch bearer and the 
highest, during this basho? Will it be less than 8? (East-West counts as 
half a rank)
(4) Which group will hold the torch more this basho, the Japanese-born 
rikishi or the foreign-born rikishi? Answer "yes" if Japanese.
(5) Will any torchbearer win back the Torch a second time after losing 
it?  Think about this - it is more likely than it sounds.
(6) Will the torchbearer most days be a lucky chikara-mizu presenter? 
(That is, will their water recipient (on the average) be a winner?) 
Maybe the Torch will be lucky. Or terribly unlucky.  Who knows. Answer 
yes if it seems to confer luck. (an even win-loss record will be 
considered lucky.)
(7) Possessing the Torch might be lucky or unlucky to the rikishi 
himself. On the average, will a rikishi who was torchbearer during the 
basho have a better record before or after getting the Torch? (not 
counting the Torch match itself, which he obviously had to have won.) 
Absences don't count.
(8) Will we see a torchbearer try to hold onto his Torch with a henka? 
Answer yes if you suspect such deprecable pseudosumo will taint a 
rikishi while holding the Torch.  My judgment is final on whether the 
win was a henka or not.

There are 8 questions above, all of which can be answered yes or no. To 
play, Choose an answer y=yes and n=no for each of the 8 questions and 
write your answer out like this:
Y,N,Y,Y,N,N,N,Y
corresponding to the answers to questions 1-8 in order. Be sure to use 
commas between the letters.  Then send your answer to me by private 
email, not to this mailing list.  You can send your answer anytime 
before the final day.  However, if your answer is identical to someone 
else's, only the first right answer wins the prize. I will mention you 
as having also got it right, though.

If no one has the right answer I will use a method to select a winner in 
which I look at those who had only one wrong question, and pick the one 
who answered the hardest questions best.  I'll give details on that 
process if it happens.  With 8 yes-no questions, there are 256 possible 
answers, and that should be enough of a challenge.  This challenge 
should not be as intimidating as some others, since you don't need to 
pick any winners, just answer some yes-no questions.

What is the prize?  The 4-dvdr set of the avi video files of the 
upcoming basho which I am making.  Whoever first sends me the answer 
which turns out to be right before the end of the basho will be the 
winner. I'll send you the disks by mail.  Free.  One entry per person 
please.

In case of fusen or kyujo or absence, Joe's "what if" rules apply.

So, Day 1 is about to begin, and the Torchbearer is Ohtsukasa, and he 
will meet Tosanoumi.  Let's see what happens.

By the way, I didn't originally mean for this to be a Game.  It just 
ended up that way by the time I finished composing this message.  If 
someone else wants to do fancy programming and create an automated 
version of this "Passing the Torch" game, by all means go ahead and do 
so.  It looks like it might be fun. I don't promise to supply the prize 
next time, though.

In fun,
Barbara Murasakihana