[sumo][spoiler] Crystal-ballgazing the Day 15 7-7 matches

Emmett Wayne emmett.wayne at us.army.mil
Mon Sep 25 08:12:42 EDT 2006


Charles,

For the record, there were 7 "Yaocho matches" on Sunday (you missed
Kyokushuzan vs. Tosanoumi).  The only 7-7 rikishi that won was Kisenosato,
and that was by fusen.

Yaocho, as far as I and my sumo game lineup are concerned, does not exist.

Emmett 
Torideyama

-----Original Message-----
From: sumo-bounces at webtrek.com [mailto:sumo-bounces at webtrek.com] On Behalf
Of Kaiopectate!
Sent: Saturday, September 23, 2006 10:43 AM
To: sumo at webtrek.com
Subject: [sumo][spoiler] Crystal-ballgazing the Day 15 7-7 matches

Several years ago, I used to post, track, and keep
stats on, the 'cusp' bouts, such as matchups between a
7-7 rikishi and one who was already make- or
kachi-koshi.  Indeed, some non-random statistical
trends were apparent.  This was long before a pair of
economists discussed the subject and pocketed a lot of
dough with a bestseller, see
http://www.freakonomics.com/.  

When I resumed following sumo recently, I was advised
that bouts simply are no longer arranged.  There are
many other factors involved than I can mention, much
less am even aware of.  So, I'll just point out the
'cusp' bouts.  

Among the 6 makuuchi-level bouts involving 7-7
rikishi, there are two 'classic' matchups which would
have raised yaocho questions in the past -- those
involving Tochinonada and Tochinohana.  Two is of
course too small a number from which to draw any
statistically reliable conclusions, nor of course any
inferences about thrown bouts.

So, wrapped protectively in qualifications and
denials, let's see what's in store for Day 15, and
learn tomorrow whether the crystal ball is still
cracked:  

Kisenosato K1E (7-7) v. Futeno M7e (9-5)
The blogger already has his kachi-koshi, so what's the
big deal if he loses?  Well, Kisenosato's sanyaku, and
in the past the stats were only skewed for
mid-maegashira-men; further, Futeno has a chance for a
10th win, all of which means this isn't really a
classic matchup.  

Tochinonada M5e (7-7) v. Dejima M3e (6-8)
Tochinonada needs his KK, while Dejima's already gone
make-koshi.  Now, who in his right mind wants to be in
the meat-grinder?  In the past, the stats plainly
favored the 7-7 rikishi against a 6-8 rikishi.  Pick
Tochinonada.

Homasho M11e (7-7) v. Kotoshogiku M7w (9-5)
Kotoshogiku's ranked higher and has a chance for 10
wins.  Older stats favored the 7-7 rikishi, but not by
much.

Tochinohana M13w (7-7) v. Kakizoe M8w (8-6)
Another match in which the stats in the past strongly
favored the 7-7 rikishi.  But Kakizoe is ranked much
higher.  Skeptical?  Then pick Tochinohana.

Takamisakari M9e (7-7) v. Takakaze M10e (9-5)
Slight edge to the 7-7 rikishi in old stats.

Asasekiryu M9w (7-7) v. Yoshikaze M12e (4-10)
Few stats existed for a match-up like this.

JURYO, for the heckuvit:

Asofuji J1e (7-7) v. Mokonami J12w (7-7)
Go with the 7-7 guy here!  I guarantee it!

Tokitsuumi J6w (7-7) v. Tochisakae J4e (6-8)

Tamarikido J7w (7-7) v. Kyokunankai J13w (8-6)

Kanbayashi J13e (7-7) v. Ryuo (J8w) (8-6)

Daimanazaru J9w (7-7) v. Kobo J10w (8-6)




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